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Solid Demand for Air Travel Continues

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global passenger traffic results for February showing demand growth of 5.4% compared to February 2013. Although this represented a slowdown compared to the January traffic increase of 8.2%, cumulative traffic growth for the first two months of 2014 was 6.9%, which compares favorably with the 5.2% overall growth achieved in 2013. February capacity rose 5.2% and load factor climbed 0.2 percentage points to 78.1%. All regions except Africa experienced positive traffic growth. “People are flying. Strong demand is consistent with the pick-up in global economic growth, particularly in advanced economies.” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO. International Passenger Markets February international passenger traffic rose 5.5% compared to the year-ago period. Capacity rose 5.8% and load factor slipped 0.2 percentage points to 76.8%. All regions recorded year-over-year increases in demand. European carriers’ international traffic climbed 5.8% in February compared to the year-ago period, the strongest growth among the three largest regions. Capacity rose 5.7% and load factor was stable at 77.4%. Growth in the manufacturing and services sectors has now reached rates not seen since the first half of 2013, according to JPMorgan/Markit’s surveys of purchasing managers, and growth is also occurring in major economies like France. Asia Pacific carriers recorded an increase of 4.0% compared to February 2013. While this was down compared to January traffic growth (8.3%), in part this was owing to the timing of the Lunar New Year, which took place in January, a month earlier than in 2013. With capacity up 5.1% over February 2013, load factor slipped 0.8 percentage points to 76.8%. While regional economic activity is robust and trade volumes continue to accelerate, business activity has declined for the third month running in China, according to data from JPMorgan/Markit. North American airlines saw demand rise 2.0% in February over a year ago, a slowdown on the January growth rate (3.7%). The demand backdrop in the region is showing signs of improvement, signaling that air travel should continue to expand in coming months. Capacity rose 2.6%, pushing down load factor half a percentage point to 75.9%. Middle East carriers had the strongest year-over-year traffic growth in February at 13.4% as airlines continue to benefit from the strength of regional economies and solid growth in business-related premium travel. The Gulf nations in particular are enjoying acceleration in non-oil sectors of their economies, further supporting strong demand for air travel. Capacity rose 12.5% and load factor climbed 0.6 percentage points to 78.9%. Latin American airlines’ traffic rose 4.2%, only slightly behind January growth (4.6%) and the outlook is broadly positive with continued robust performance of economies like Colombia, Peru and Chile, and the upcoming demand to be generated by the FIFA World Cup in Brazil. Capacity rose 2.1% and load factor climbed 1.6 percentage points to 79.0%, the highest for any region. African airlines experienced the slowest demand growth, up 0.1% compared to February 2013. With capacity up 4.1%, load factor fell 2.6 percentage points to 63.7%, by far the lowest among the regions. The weakness over recent months in part could reflect adverse economic developments in some parts of the continent, with the slowdown in the major economy of South Africa, as well as growing competition from airlines based outside the region.



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