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The United Arab Emirates ranks 40 of 162 in 2014 Global Peace Index

The United Arab Emirates ranks 40 out of 162 countries in this year’s Global Peace Index (GPI) released today. While the UAE’s rank has fallen five places in this year’s index, it still ranks in the top 25% of the world’s most peaceful countries. The UAE remains the 3rd most peaceful country in the region, and scores well on many of the internal indicators - the UAE has not suffered from internal conflicts or terrorist activity, and enjoys low levels of violent crime and homicides. In 2013, political instability also improved, and there was a slight moderation of military spending. The economic impact in the UAE of preventing or dealing with violence was estimated to cost the national economy US$11.7 billion in 2013. This is equivalent to 4.3% of the UAE’s GDP, or US$1270 per person. Violence containment spending is defined as economic activity that is related to either the prevention of or the consequences of violence - either external or internal. The UAE has remained politically stable over the last five years, contributing to a broadly peaceful period. The uprisings that erupted in several countries in the Middle East and North Africa in 2011 did not directly affect the UAE, but did prompt the authorities to tighten security. Globally, terrorist activity, the number of conflicts fought, and the number of refugees and displaced persons were the key contributors to the continuing deterioration in worldwide peacefulness last year. This confirms a seven year gradual, but significant downward slide, which overturns a 60-year trend of increasing global peacefulness dating back to the end of the Second World War. The economic impact of containing and dealing with the consequences of global violence last year was estimated to be US$9.8 trillion, according to the latest Global Peace Index (GPI) released today. This is equivalent to 11.3% of global GDP - equal to twice the size of the 54 countries in the African economy. Steve Killelea, founder and Executive Chairman of the IEP observed, "Many macro factors have driven the deterioration in peace over the last seven years including the continued economic repercussions of the Global Financial Crisis, the reverberations of the Arab Spring, and the continued spread of terrorism. As these effects are likely to continue into the near future; a strong rebound in peace is unlikely. "This is resulting in very real costs to the world economy; increases in the global economic impact of violence and its containment are equivalent to 19% of global economic growth from 2012 to 2013. To put this in perspective, this is around $1,350 per person. The danger is that we fall into a negative cycle: low economic growth leads to higher levels of violence, the containment of which produces lower economic growth. "The UAE has placed a strong focus on domestic security throughout the period, with considerable investment in maintaining a well-staffed police force. Security focus have become even more marked since 2011, following the Arab Spring uprisings, which saw protests break out elsewhere in the region." The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), which produces the report, has also developed new statistical modelling techniques to identify the 10 countries most threatened by increased levels of unrest and violence in the next two years. These models have a 90% historical accuracy. Countries with higher levels of risk include Zambia, Haiti, Argentina, Chad, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Nepal, Burundi, Georgia, Liberia and World Cup 2022 host Qatar. The new methodology analyses a data set stretching back to 1996, and compares countries with the performance of states with similar institutional characteristics. "What is transformational in this analysis is our ability to compare a country’s current level of peace with the potential for it to increase or decrease in violence in the future. A country’s potential for peace is shaped by many positive factors including sound institutions, well-functioning government, low levels of corruption and a pro-business environment which we call the Pillars of Peace. These models are revolutionary for assessing country risk; positive peace factors tend to align over longer periods of time with actual levels of violence thereby allowing real predictive accuracy," said Steve Killelea. "Given the deteriorating global situation we cannot be complacent about the institutional bedrocks for peace: our research shows that peace is unlikely to flourish without deep foundations. This is a wakeup call to governments, development agencies, investors and the wider international community that building peace is the prerequisite for economic and social development." In the IEP’s current assessment, Cote d’Ivoire recorded the second biggest improvement in the GPI 2014 with reductions in the likelihood of violent demonstrations and in the number of displaced persons, while the largest improvement occurred in Georgia, as it gradually returns to normality following its 2011 conflict with Russia. The most peaceful region of the world continues to be Europe while the least peaceful region is South Asia. Afghanistan has been displaced at the bottom of the index by Syria due to a slight improvement in its peace while Syria continued to deteriorate. South Sudan experienced the largest drop in the index this year falling to 160th and now ranking as the third least peaceful country. Major deteriorations also occurred in Egypt, Ukraine and Central African Republic. GPI report, video, and interactive maps are available at www.visionofhumanity.org



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